Tuesday - July 14, 2009

Screenshot from http://finance.yahoo.com/

Intel (INTC) had better than expected earning report. It jumped to $18.02 in after-hours trading. The company reported $0.18 adjusted earnings per share while analysts were expecting $0.08. Same time last year was $0.28, i.e. a drop of ~35.7%. Stock price at about the same time last year was between $22-24. If we discount 35.7%, stock price today would be ~$14.1-15.4. What else? Sales were down 15.3%. The company, though, has "clear expectations for a seasonally stronger second half". Can you interpret it as good news? I personally don't.
I always like INTC. I thought it is a nice company and Intel chip is almost present in every computer. I have been looking at it since January 28th, 2009. I had a little note in my agenda. It says $14.01 on that day. Now it looks expensive. Investors will soon realize that, especially when macro economy picture becomes clearer to them. It's just hype right now.
Volume in the markets is still very light these days. More earning report is coming out this week.

Thursday - June 4, 2009

Screenshot from http://finance.yahoo.com/

Intel (INTC) is going to buy Wind River Systems Inc. (WIND) for $884 millions in cash. WIND's software technology is used by NASA, Apple (AAPL), and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), etc. This deal is expected to close in the summer. This will diversify INTC's business. WIND jumped 47% to $11.76.
Retail sales fell in the month of May. Same store sales at Costco (COST) fell 7%, Abercrombie and Fitch (ANF) fell 28%, Nordstrom (JWN)fell 13.1%. Consumers are not willing to spend much yet. Note that two thirds of the US economy is retail.

In a commentary "Buffett Is Less Bullish on U.S. Than You Think: Alice Schroeder" written by Alice Schroeder, it says:

There’s evidence, though, that Buffett is awake to America’s problems. He says there will be no quick rebound in consumer spending, the economy has “fallen off a cliff,” and we are now “fighting a war.” Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s real- estate arm just estimated that the backlog of unsold houses is double the official figures. ...
Once you disentangle all these strands -- the cautious Buffett who tends his reputation, Buffett the long-term optimist, Buffett the realist about economics, Buffett the hawk on inflation, and Buffett the domestic investor -- it turns out that Buffett is bullish, but not as bullish as he sounds. His optimism is long-term in nature, and inflation is his hedge.
Consider yourself warned.

I considered myself warned.